Wednesday, November 26, 2008

You must know this if you are to be King

I read a lot on this subject. I start everyday with ICECAP, a compendium of recent articles and studies on the subject. Although, the Political consensus is settled and our erstwhile leaders are fully committed to reducing CO2 emissions at any cost there are still real scientist who are trying to figure out if we are warming or cooling and what role nature and or man has. Below is from a reader comment to a article titled "Adjusting temperatures for the ENSO and AMO" I am enclosing the entire comment because it is a good example of LOGIC and if you can follow it you will get a better understanding of the enormous complexity involved in understanding our universe. Anyone who says "It is settled science" is either clueless or stands to make a fortune cashing in on the bubble created by our bungling leaders.
Now, so your eyes don't glass over here are some key points:
The AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the ENSO: El Nino Southern Oscillation are multi decade changes in the massive ocean currents that influence our weather.
The referenced study analyzed these influences and then removed them to reveal an Unexplained temperature rise.
The reader uses logic to challenge conclusions and suggest other possible explanations that might be attributable to longer term frequency oscillations that span hundreds of years and observable with statistics.
When he gets to the "Argument from ignorance must be witches" - this is the AHA! moment.
This is the point that you realize we don't know. The politically driven "Alarmist" are saying it must be the rising CO2 and they have convinced all the right people with their false claims of 95% certainty and "the consensus of world scientist" Blah, Blah Blah.

Anyway, I find it enlightening. As Arthur said in Monty Python's "In Search of the Holy Grail" " must know these things if you are to be king"
Let me know what you think. Leave a comment.

Richard S Courtney (03:24:30) :
Bill Illis:
Thankyou for this cogent
analysis. I have one comment on your method and its effect on your
conclusion. I understand your article to say your analytical method has the following steps. 1.The effect on temperature of AMO and ENSO within the time series is calculated by simple regression (this is possible because AMO and ENSO exhibit several cycles within the temporal range of the data set).
2.The temperature effect of AMO and ENSO is deleted from the time series to reveal a residual temperature trend in the time series.
3.The residual trend is assumed to be an effect of changed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration over the temporal range of the data set.
4.The assumption in step 3 is used to calculate the climate sensitivity to changing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.
This may be correct, but the assumption in step 3 is the
logical fallacy of ‘argument from ignorance’. The assumption amounts to, “The cause of the residual trend is not known so it must be changing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration”. (If this ‘logical fallacy’ is not clear then consider, “The cause of crop failures is not known so it must be witches”.)
Of course, the residual trend may be a result of changing
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. However, the assumption in step 3 does not concur with the implicit assumption of steps 1 and 2 that natural cycles are affecting the temperature trend.
Other natural cycles may also be affecting the trend, and the method is not applicable to cycles with lower frequency than the time series. Such a very low frequency oscillation does seem to exist. There is an apparent ~900 year oscillation that caused the Roman Warm
Period (RWP), then the Dark Age Cool Period (DACP), then the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), then the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the present warm period (PWP).There is no known cause of this apparent low frequency oscillation: some people suggest it could be solar influence, but it could be the chaotic climate system seeking its attractor(s), and it could be … . However, there is no known cause of the AMO and ENSO, either.Therefore, the implicit
assumption of your steps 1 and 2 suggests that the residual trend determined by your steps 1 and 2 could be recovery from the LIA that is similar to the recovery from the DACP to the MWP.
Indeed, since the method adopted the implicit assumption of your steps 1 and 2, consistency suggests that all the observed rise of global temperature in the twentieth century is recovery from the LIA that is similar to the recovery from the DACP to the MWP. Hence, the
calculated climate sensitivity to changing atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration obtained by your method should be assumed to be a maximum value until this possibility of recovery from the LIA is assessed.
I hope these
thoughts are helpful.
Again, thankyou for your superb work that I trust will
soon be published.

Friday, November 21, 2008

A look ahead - Obama Cabinet Meeting

If I am going to survivie the next 4 years it is going to be up to me. The old adage about humor is important for all of us and we need a healthy dose of it EVERY day. Thank God there is a lot of it out there. You need to make it a priority like taking your meds or working out.
Come back here from time to time and see the gems I have found.

This one courtesy of a daily compendium of "Must Reads" from around the world compiled by a group calling themselves "L dotters"

Cabinet of Curiosities #5

OBAMA: Michelle's now my Senior Advisor. You want to talk with me, ask Rahm, and if you get past him, Michelle.
EMANUEL: Waste our time, I'll cut your budget ten percent.
OBAMA: Our health initiative, HHS?
TOM DASCHLE: We're into Stage One, pouring resources into the chronically underserved undocumented immigrant community. Once they’re healthy, we’ll shift them into general coverage and begin Stage Two: making hospitals and clinics death traps through staff cuts and underfunding. That’ll reduce the strain on facilities and ease population pressures, too.
OBAMA: Good. Transportation?
RALPH NADER: There’s no ''right to drive'' in The Constitution, sir. Ban private ownership of autos -- we’ll get off foreign oil and save big on infrastructure. Let's look to the Amish for public transport ideas.
OBAMA: Nader isn't in the Cabinet--how’d he get in here? Never mind. Treasury?
PAUL KRUGMAN: You always do the opposite of what I advise, sir, so I object to a tax on air breathers.
OBAMA: Noted. State, tell Reid I want Reverend Farrakhan’s appointment as Vatican Ambassador fast-tracked. Can't wait to see his X men mix it up with the Swiss Guard.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008


If you want to start your day with a grin I recommend Planet Moron. I have reproduced one below.

November 14, 2008
maybe they call it research because you have to do it over again
A research study reported on this week from the Workforce Education and Development Initiative (WED) found that non-profit organizations contribute to the economy.

This is surely true. For instance, General Motors is a non-profit and we all know it contributes to the economy, including nearly $10 million contributed to Washington lobbyists and lawyers alone. Imagine what that did for local Ferragamo shoe sales!

Oh, they meant organizations that are non-profit on purpose.

The study focused primarily on the Pennsylvania Association of the Blind (PAB) and noted that the economic activity such non-profits generate is due directly to the fact that they spend the money people give them.

This finally puts to rest the long-held belief that charities use donor checks primarily to create soup stock for Meals-on-Wheels programs (you have no idea how long it takes to boil those things down).

But no, expert researchers Dr. David Passmore and Dr. Rose Baker applied their unique insights (it’s a gift, really… and a curse) and found that the PAB “purchases such items as electricity, water, office paper,… and office furniture.” This would be as opposed to sitting in the dark, thirsty, writing on the walls cross-legged on the floor.

Who knew?

But as they delved further into the subject, their curiosity obviously piqued by their startling discoveries up to that point, they found more, including irrefutable evidence that the people who work for the PAB spend their pay on “various consumer items,” and do not, as was previously believed, burn the money in ritualistic pagan harvest ceremonies. This is all “part of the complex web of economic relationships that comprise the Pennsylvania economy,” observed Passmore and Baker, clearly giddy with the realization that they may be the very first researchers ever to compile the hard data necessary to convince a skeptical academy that people both make and spend money.

Is that Mr. Nobel calling?

But then, the Workforce Education & Development Initiative, a partnership of various Penn State entities, has long been on the cutting edge of economic analysis. If you have a question about how a specific economic event might impact your area, the WED is the place to go for a report that does not specifically address your question.

And do it dependably. Every time. For example:

A repot on Merck & Co. layoffs “was designed to help understand the impact of job cuts of Merck & Co. in Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties,” however “the Brief does not forecast the specific impact of Merck & Co.’s operations.”

A report on National City Corporation layoffs “was designed to help understand the potential effect it has on the County,” however “the Brief does not forecast the specific impact of National City Corporation’s operations.”

And a report on potential gas royalty income that doesn’t offer any information on the actual impact of gas royalty income beyond the assumptions that it would probably be real good.

In other words, the WED is kind of like a murder mystery train; they provide all the clues you need, but it’s up to you to guess what the real effect on employment and tax receipts will be!

Isn’t that more fun?

Regardless, the WED clearly fills a vital role in detailing the obvious and avoiding the difficult. We should consider ourselves fortunate that the WED is able to retain the services of Passmore and Baker and that they have not been tempted to leave and apply their intellects to more lucrative pursuits, such as finding a cure for cancer, developing sustainable fusion reactions, or pasting colorful bits of felt to poster board.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Planet Moron: CONSENSUS WATCH – 11/06/2008

Check out this humorous (but accurate) account of what we are facing with CAP & TRADE, coming soon to a Utility near you. But don't despair, it is based on BAD science but it is also WELL INTENDED so those good feelings should compensate.

Here's a teaser...

As luck would have it, bankrupt power plants have a relatively small carbon footprint and in fact might be carbon positive if you factor in the overgrown weeds sopping up carbon dioxide and the workers who no longer need to commute to their jobs but instead hang around the house listlessly emitting low levels of CO2.

So it’s sort of win-win-win.